My view is that Floyd Mayweather Jr. finally couldn't win. Damned if he did or didn't.
He could keep running, retire undefeated and live with the shame of THIS GLARING ASTERISK: Never Fought Manny Pacquiao.
Or he could be dared and goaded and mocked into facing his greatest fear: 47-1.
Pride won and Mayweather finally chose the latter. He finally gave in to the father/trainer he was named after and to all those he pays to tell him how great he is -- all of them telling him, "Floyd, you can take this guy, easy."
Deep down, Floyd knows better.
He will lose to Pacquiao, by knockout, on May 2. As Pacquiao's trainer, Freddie Roach, told me by phone: "Manny wants this fight more than Floyd."
Pacquiao has wanted it more for five long years as he waited (and waited) on May-(or May Not)-weather, who counterpunched with excuse after excuse. At first Mayweather's camp slung mud that Pacquiao was a PED product, simply because he grew from a light flyweight (up to 108 pounds) at age 16 to a power-punching welterweight (140-147 pounds). Pacquiao sued Floyd, his father and others in his camp for defamation.
Next Mayweather and Pacquiao went back and forth over how close to a potential fight they would have their blood drawn for testing. Pacquiao and Roach protested they didn't want Manny weakened too close to the fight. Deals kept falling apart.
Again and again I wondered: If Mayweather is as all-time great as he keeps saying, why would he care even if Pacquiao were doing steroids the way Mayweather does M&Ms? No doubt Mayweather is the greatest defensive fighter ever. So as long as he and Pacquiao weigh the same, what's to fear?
Far more than steroids.
Mayweather has boxing genius. But it takes one to know one, and he knew right away Pacquiao also has rare boxing IQ -- an equalizing gift for setting up and taking down an opponent. Mayweather's other dominant advantage over every other opponent has been hand speed. Yet he could see Pacquiao's hands are as scary quick as his. Worse, Mayweather knew all too well that Pacquiao was blessed with far more natural punching power than Floyd ever had.
"Floyd is a decent puncher," Freddie Roach said. "He walked Ricky Hatton into a nice left hook. But he doesn't sit down on punches that often. Bad hands. All the Mayweathers [his father and two uncles were all champions or contenders] ... small bodies, small hands."
Yes, Mayweather constantly has struggled with sore hands that don't lend themselves to throwing lots of knockout punches. Advantage, Pacquiao.
Mayweather also has struggled some with left-handers. Pacquiao is left-handed. Pacquiao's promoter, Bob Arum, who promoted Mayweather for 10 years, flat out says Floyd is "afraid of left-handers." Roach told me Mayweather chose to fight a few lefties just because he knew one day he would have to fight the best and baddest lefty. Advantage, Pacquiao.
Mayweather Sr. counters that his son's advantages in height (5-8 to 5-6) and reach (72 inches to 67) make this an unfair fight. He told Fighthype.com that Pacquiao "is so damn short. Floyd's going to make him look like a baby."
Yet as his son continued to duck Pacquiao, Floyd Sr. said several times that Floyd Jr. "doesn't know it yet, but he can beat Pacquiao."
Does he even know it now?
About two years ago, Pacquiao joined us at the "First Take" debate desk and revealed two more whatever-it-takes concessions. He said he would accept the lower end of a 60-40 split and he said he would agree to a day-of-fight blood test. I did not see dollar signs in Pacquiao's eyes that day. I saw the cool, hard look of a competitor who truly believes he can beat a man he truly believes is afraid of him.
That's the word Pacquiao used when I pressed him. Why won't Floyd fight him? He shrugged as if it was obvious and said, "He's afraid."
This did not come off like pre-fight hype. There was no fight.
Pacquiao eventually resorted to daring and taunting Mayweather in a Foot Locker commercial and via Twitter. My debate partner, Stephen A. Smith, was incredulous at this dangerous disrespect, saying, "Manny Pacquiao has the audacity to dare Floyd Mayweather Jr.? The nerve!"
Of course, it was easy to dismiss these dares as desperation. Over the past few years, several reports have indicated Pacquiao has been in financial trouble, in part because of his philanthropy in his home country. Even Roach has said, "He can't say no." So it's certainly possible this record payday was one reason Pacquiao wanted this fight.
But the feeling I get from Roach and another source in the Pacquiao camp is that Manny has wanted "Money" Mayweather for far more than money, that he badly wants to show the world he can out-will and even out-box Mayweather. Pacquiao, I'm told, loves being a 2-to-1 underdog.
"Look," Roach said, "this will be a very difficult fight. Floyd's style will be very hard for Manny. Manny likes guys to come to him, and Floyd will run and he will box. He's very clever. You have to avoid his traps."
Yet Mayweather is now 38, Pacquiao 36. Which brings us to this irony from Roach: "Five years ago, maybe Floyd would've beaten Manny. ... [But] Manny has more heart right now."
Mayweather fans will laugh out loud at that contention. Wait, they'll say, in 2012 Pacquiao suffered back-to-back losses! He lost to Timothy Bradley! And he got "put to sleep" by Juan Manuel Marquez with a sixth-round knockout! Pacquiao hasn't knocked out anyone in six years!
Excuse me, but the split decision by which he lost to Bradley was the most outrageously inexplicable judging I've ever witnessed (the first fight I covered was Ali-Spinks in New Orleans, 1978). Pacquiao soundly whipped Bradley in their rematch.
And that was the fourth time Pacquiao had fought Marquez! With 1 second left in Round 6, Pacquiao let his mind wander and he wandered right into a right hand that momentarily separated him from his senses. But here's the point: Pacquiao didn't want to be fighting Marquez again or to be fighting Bradley either time. He wanted to be fighting Mayweather.
Pacquiao's heart hasn't really been in a fight for about five years. Now, if you want to argue his heart hasn't been in inflicting punishment on another man, you could have a point. That's my only concern about Pacquiao-Mayweather: A spiritual conversion Pacquiao experienced about five years ago might have softened his spirit a little and melted some of his warrior's ferocity. He might have become too nice a guy.
It's also possible that while waiting on Mayweather, he allowed himself to be too distracted and drained by his political and singing careers. No doubt the strategically brilliant Mayweather monitored Pacquiao's life changes, waiting for the moment Manny was finally ripe for the taking.
When Mayweather approached Pacquiao at a recent Miami Heat game and asked to meet with him in Pacquiao's hotel room, it's possible Floyd just wanted the opportunity to look into Manny's eyes, maybe even into his soul, and gauge just how much fire was still burning.
My guess: Manny fooled him.
When Manny wants to, he can come across as the nicest, nonthreatening non-fighter you'll ever meet. There's at least some truth to this thought from a source in Pacquiao's camp: "The third-world ghetto fighter [Pacquiao left home at 14 because his mother could no longer afford to feed him and five siblings] is not intimidated by the American inner-city fighter [Floyd grew up in Grand Rapids, Michigan]. The third-world fighter has seen worse things. So Floyd cannot win this fight before the fight."
There is much truth to Roach's point about preparing for Pacquiao. Floyd Jr. and Sr. can watch all the tape they want, but: "You really don't realize just how fast Manny is or how hard he hits until you actually get hit by him."
Deep down, Floyd surely has an idea.
Roach predicts Manny will knock out Mayweather "very late in the fight. ... It will be a process of breaking him down. He'll get a little tired and ..."
Boom: 47-1.
Manny finally shamed you into it, Floyd.