Global Investment Strategy Group
A dedicated team of economists, market strategists, and asset-class specialists who develop our investment insights. Rooted in local expertise and connected on a global scale, our team leverages extensive experience to provide a unique perspective on the world's financial markets.
Global Investment Strategy Group
A dedicated team of economists, market strategists, and asset-class specialists who develop our investment insights. Rooted in local expertise and connected on a global scale, our team leverages extensive experience to provide a unique perspective on the world's financial markets.
Four key takeaways from our March View
We expect higher import duties on China and a limited number of other countries and products in an effort to secure supply chains in critical industries. However, the risk of a more broad-based application of tariffs is underappreciated and arguably underpriced. Consider uncorrelated assets such as gold, hedge funds, and derivatives including structured products and put/call-writing strategies.
Given slower progress in bringing down inflation (and a quicker pace of tariff implementation), we revise our year-end core PCE outlook 10bps higher. Consequently, we also pencil in two cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) by end of year (vs. three in our prior forecast). Still, we believe with high conviction that the Fed’s next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike. Focus on the income component in fixed income. We increase our conviction in the securitized space as a way to enhance yield without taking increased duration risk. In core fixed income, we continue to like munis.
U.S. equities are lower year-to-date, but corporate fundamentals remain solid. Under the hood, it’s a stock picker’s market. We look for opportunities in industrials and utilities and prefer software to hardware in the information technology sector. Financials continue to attract capital. Stay invested; be selective.
In our 2025 Outlook, we anticipated that U.S. stock markets would outperform. We still hold this view from current levels through year-end and see recent moves as a slight correction of previously stretched relative valuations. We revise higher our European and Chinese equity outlooks to reflect reduced downside risks but do not see significant upside from current levels. Our bottoms-up analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan are expected to deliver the highest total returns through year-end.
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Meet the team driving our insights
Xavier Vegas
Global Head of Credit Strategy
Alex Wolf
Head of Asia Investment Strategy
Erik Wytenus
Head of EMEA Investment Strategy
Samuel Zief
Global Macro Strategist & Head of Global FX Strategy
Elyse Ausenbaugh
Global Investment Strategist
Christopher Baggini
Global Head of Equity Strategy
Russell Budnick
Global Head of Market Strategy and Trading
Nur Cristiani
Head of LATAM Investment Strategy
Madison Faller
Global Investment Strategist
Stephen Jury
Global Commodity Strategist
Jacob Manoukian
U.S. Head of Investment Strategy
Grace Peters
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Kristin Kallergis Rowland
Global Head of Alternative Investments
Joe Seydl
Senior Markets Economist
Xavier Vegas
Global Head of Credit Strategy
Alex Wolf
Head of Asia Investment Strategy
Erik Wytenus
Head of EMEA Investment Strategy
Samuel Zief
Global Macro Strategist & Head of Global FX Strategy
Elyse Ausenbaugh
Global Investment Strategist
Christopher Baggini
Global Head of Equity Strategy
Russell Budnick
Global Head of Market Strategy and Trading
Nur Cristiani
Head of LATAM Investment Strategy
Madison Faller
Global Investment Strategist
Stephen Jury
Global Commodity Strategist
Jacob Manoukian
U.S. Head of Investment Strategy
Grace Peters
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Kristin Kallergis Rowland
Global Head of Alternative Investments
Joe Seydl
Senior Markets Economist
Xavier Vegas
Global Head of Credit Strategy
Alex Wolf
Head of Asia Investment Strategy
Erik Wytenus
Head of EMEA Investment Strategy
Samuel Zief
Global Macro Strategist & Head of Global FX Strategy
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KEY RISKS
Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage.The value of commodity-linked derivative instruments may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Use of leveraged commodity-linked derivatives creates an opportunity for increased return but, at the same time, creates the possibility for greater loss.
As a reminder, hedge funds (or funds of hedge funds) often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. These investments can be highly illiquid, and are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees. Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any such fund. For complete information, please refer to the applicable offering memorandum.
Derivatives may be riskier than other types of investments because they may be more sensitive to changes in economic or market conditions than other types of investments and could result in losses that significantly exceed the original investment. The use of derivatives may not be successful, resulting in investment losses, and the cost of such strategies may reduce investment returns.
Investing in Structured Notes involves a number of significant risks. We have set forth certain risk factors and other investment considerations relating to the investment below. Not all investments are suitable (or in the best interest) for all investors. You should analyze the Structured Notes based on your individual circumstances, taking into account such factors as investment objectives, tolerance for risk, and liquidity needs.
Not all option strategies are suitable for all investors. Certain strategies may expose investors to significant potential risks and losses. For additional risk information, please read the “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”:http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. We advise investors to consult their tax advisors and legal counsel about the tax implications of these strategies. Investors are urged to carefully consider whether options or option-related products or strategies are suitable for their needs.