Whether you prefer Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders, there’s no question that the next president’s economic and employment policies will be a key influence on the health of real estate for the next four years, including, perhaps, the price of a mortgage.
With primary voters going to the polls in several states today, including California, New Jersey and New Mexico, a new survey reveals increasing numbers of Americans believe the 2016 presidential election will have a negative effect on the housing market.
The survey, by national real estate firm Redfin, shows 27 percent of homebuyers believe the election will hurt real estate, up from 15 percent in February. The poll was conducted between May 17 and May 23 and includes responses from 975 homebuyers in 36 states and Washington, D.C., Redfin says..
Though 63 percent of respondents believe the election will have no effect on the housing market at all, that’s still a 12 point decline since February, the survey data show. The number of respondents agreeing the election will negatively affect the market grew from 15 percent to 27 percent.
Just 1 percent of respondents said they would leave the country if their candidate loses in the election but another 9 percent said they will either consider it or seriously consider it.
“While homeowner anxiety over the election is clearly mounting, the likelihood of an immediate shock to the market is slim,” Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson said. “It will take considerable time for our next commander-in-chief to implement policies that have any impact on housing.”
Despite his real estate pedigree, Donald Trump lags Bernie Sanders among respondents asked which candidate would help the housing market the most. Bernie Sanders drew 26.5 percent of buyers in the survey. But 28 percent said the market would be better served by a candidate other than the three remaining contenders.
It's perhaps no surprise Sanders scored well: the survey respondents skewed young, a sector the Vermont senator has done better with than his opponents. Forty percent were millennials and more than 37 percent were first-time buyers, Redfin says.
No matter who wins this fall, they’re likely to inherit a stronger real estate market than four years ago.
Pending home sales rose for the third consecutive month in April and reached their highest level in over a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors. This follows the housing market's best first quarter of existing-sales since 2007, the realty group says.
The national median existing single-family home price in the first quarter rose 6.3 percent from the first quarter of 2015 to $217,600, National Association of Realtors says.
